Revise short-term forecasts
Despite the overwhelming uncertainty brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, cities can use financial forecasting to manage through the crisis. Planning for various scenarios can help cities better manage their resources and maximize public value for residents.
ASSESSMENT
Some questions to guide your thinking
- What are the best and worst-case revenue scenarios for your city?
- What data can the city use to validate and stress test assumptions?
- How can the city use these scenarios to prepare for a variety of possible futures?
Reading
Diagnosing your city's fiscal health
Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) 20 minutes
This report guides leaders through an initial diagnosis focused on technical and financial elements of administering local government.
Reading
Planning for various scenarios during a pandemic
Social Finance 15 minutes
This resource provides a useful framework for leaders to explore four potential scenarios that might arise from the government response to the pandemic. Scenarios are mapped based on how services might be financed and transformed during the pandemic.
Video
Updating forecasting models
MSRC 40 min
This webinar discusses many of the issues local governments are likely to face in the coming weeks while dealing with the pandemic.
13
Updating your model
16
Forecasting revenues
37
Forecasting expenditures
Reading
Understanding the fiscal impact of the pandemic recession
National League of Cities (NLC) 30 minutes
This report analyzes finance data from the US Census Bureau and unemployment projections from the Congressional Budget Office and proposes a framework for the analysis of budget shortfalls encompassing revenue responsiveness and economic conditions.
- Nearly all cities, towns, and villages will experience revenue shortfalls in 2021.
- The magnitude of the shortfalls will depend on the underlying fiscal structure
- Pages 9-11 contain the main estimates by state.
Reading
Understanding the challenges and opportunities of budgeting during COVID-19
Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership Initiative (BHCLI) 10 minutes
This handout describes an approach to budgeting during the pandemic recession that relies on re-imagining the city budget. Cities should be aware of the limitations they face, including lack of coordination at other government levels and the inability to use traditional revenue sources.
- Leaders must plan for best-guess and worst-case scenarios, update those scenarios, and adjust accordingly.
Podcast
Budgeting during COVID-19
Engaging Local Government Leaders (ELGL) 55 min
In this podcast Norfolk, VA budget director Gregory Patrick discusses how his office assembled an annual budget during COVID-19, including detail on how their process changed and what the financial impact may …
- Adjusting revenue estimates [12:25]
- Managing expenditures [15:10]
- Managing uncertainty [20:00]
- Strategic planning during crisis [25:25]
Reading
Diagnosing your city's fiscal health
This report guides leaders through an initial diagnosis focused on technical and …
Reading
Planning for various scenarios during a pandemic
This resource provides a useful framework for leaders to explore four potential …
VIDEO
Updating forecasting models
This webinar discusses many of the issues local governments are likely to face in …
Reading
Understanding the fiscal impact of the pandemic recession
This report analyzes finance data from the US Census Bureau and unemployment …
Reading
Understanding the challenges and opportunities of budgeting during COVID-19
This handout describes an approach to budgeting during the pandemic recession that …
Podcast
Budgeting during COVID-19
In this podcast Norfolk, VA budget director Gregory Patrick discusses how his office…